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Activity 3.2:Develop scenarios

GLOSSARY TERMS

The aim of the SUMP Glossary is to provide a brief explanation of specialist words, terms and abbreviations relating to the subject of sustainable urban mobility planning. The Glossary has been prepared by the CH4LLENGE project and as a result, there is a particular focus on defining terms relating to the four key challenges of plan development studied by the project, namely: participation, cooperation, measure selection and monitoring & evaluation. It is envisaged that, over time, the international community of mobility practitioners will add to the content of the online Glossary and produce versions in different languages.
A simple structure has been followed so that users can search for words, terms and abbreviations in a standard alphabetic format. For each Glossary term, the following information is provided:
• a general definition and, where available, a specific definition relating to transport and mobility planning;
• an explanation of why the term is relevant to sustainable urban mobility planning; and
• references to sources.
The preparation of the Glossary, including the selection of terms and drafting of definitions, has been informed by a review of relevant reports, guidance documents and existing glossaries. The key reference is the European Union “Guidelines - Developing and implementing a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan” prepared for the EC’s Intelligent Energy Europe (IEE) programme by Rupprecht Consult (January 2014) and therefore this has not been identified as a source throughout the document. The outputs of the CH4LLENGE project have also provided a principal source of information and the official documents can be found at www.sump-challenges.eu.

Please note that not all the explanatory text is taken directly from the listed sources. The authors have sought to take established definitions and information as the basis and explain these in simple terms and relate them to the context of sustainable urban mobility planning where this was not previously the case.

By Admin Eltis / Updated: 11 Nov 2015

Rationaleinfo-icon

Scenarios help stakeholders better understand the likely combined effects that the measures discussed in a Sustainable Urban Mobility Planinfo-icon will have. By illustrating different future situations, it allows them to assess independently the consequences of current trends, measures already programmed, and new policyinfo-icon choices. Examining the effects of these different scenarios enables you to set realistic targets for outcome indicators (> see Activity 5.2).

Aims

  • Develop alternative scenarios that allow discussion about complex strategies for future development.
  • Stimulate discussion on policy alternatives and their impacts.
  • Enhance broad ownershipinfo-icon and acceptance of the strategies that will be retained for implementation.

 

Tasks

  • Describe different scenarios in a quantitative and qualitative way:
    • A business-as-usual scenarioinfo-icon describes the development if actions that are already programmed are implemented.
    • Different alternative policy scenarios describe developments resulting from the choice of different policies and measures.
  • Assess interdependencies between sectoral trends: Transport, land use, environmental, and economic development, demography, etc. Identify in a basic way synergies, potential for integrationinfo-icon and negative effects of sectoral trends. An example for a reinforcing effect would be the use of a cleaner public transport fleet that could reinforce emission reductions for hot spots within a congestion-charging zone. A negative effect could be the isolated implementation of new “park&ride” locations that may trigger new urban development instead of reducing car traffic.
  • Take into consideration the resilience of the transport system against expected or unexpected events.
  • Use appropriate techniques such as modelling or purely qualitative analysis based on expert judgement or previous results to support scenario development and appraisalinfo-icon. Choose modelling techniques that are appropriate to the policy instruments being used in the plan, the stage of development of the plan’s strategyinfo-icon and the size and geographical context of the covered area. Look at cost-effective solutions: complex high-cost models typically generate more accurate forecasts and can be justified for situations where the potential benefits for the plan are large; smaller schemes or plans can also be based on successful experiences from similar urban contexts, likely impacts from other modelling studies or network/street design solutions.
  • Analyse to determine which strategy serves the visioninfo-icon (> Activity 4.1).
  • Stimulate discussion of policy alternatives and their impacts with key stakeholders.

 

Activities beyond essential requirements

  • Apply wider involvement strategies for stakeholders in scenario development to enhance broad ownership of the strategies that will be retained for implementation.
  • Develop a do-nothing scenario: this describes development if nothing is done at all (only prediction of exogenous trends). This provides additional arguments for discussion.

 

Timing and coordination

  • Follows the status analysis.
  • The development of the scenarios accompanies the development of a common vision (> Activity 4.3), objectives (> Activity 5.1) and targets (> Activity 5.2).

 

Checklist

Do-nothing scenario elaborated (qualitatively and quantitatively).

Business-as-usual scenario elaborated (qualitatively and quantitatively).

Different alternative policy scenarios described (qualitatively and quantitatively). Choose which scenario serves the vision in the most efficient and effective way.

Appropiate techniques applied to support the scenario development and appraisal.

 

For more information

Transport Analysis Guidance Website – WebTAG (DfT, UK)

The source provides detailed guidance on the appraisal of transport projects and wider advice on scoping and carrying out transport studies. It gives useful guidance on scenario development.

Web link: www.dft.gov.uk/webtag/

 

PROSPECTS – A methodological guidebook

The principal objectiveinfo-icon of PROSPECTS (2002-2003) was to provide cities with the guidance they need to generate optimal land use and transport strategies to meet the challenge of sustainabilityinfo-icon in their particular circumstances. The Methodological Guidebook, designed for professionals, provides information on predicting impacts (pp. 66-80). A separate chapter is dedicated to visualisation techniques (pp. 157-170).

Web link: www.ivv.tuwien.ac.at/forschung/projekte/international-projects/prospects...

 


Tools

Overview of modelling tools

A number of modelling tools and techniques are available to support scenario development and appraisal. Transport models are aimed at representing the interaction between demand and supply of transport, to forecast and compare something that does not yet exist (i.e. future scenarios) in quantitative terms. Qualitative estimates of the likely effects of tested mobilityinfo-icon measures and design solutions in similar urban contexts can also be used for more immediate and small-scale applications.

Transport models are not necessarily the optimal solution for analysing scenarios. They require time, resources and datainfo-icon to be set up and used. Therefore, if conditions are not appropriate, qualitative or simpler quantitative techniques could be recommendable as developing a modelling toolinfo-icon could result in a waste of time and money. Nevertheless it should be kept in mind that a well-built model will produce more reliable responses. Founding policy decisions on a naïve assessmentinfo-icon methodology to save money and time in the elaboration phase could result in wasting much more money if a wrong policy – especially when infrastructural policies are involved – is put into practice.

Transport models can be distinguished according to their operational capabilities:

  • Uni-modal models: demand growth forecast is exogenous, as only one transport modeinfo-icon is considered (e.g. private transport) and the focus of the model is on route choice;
  • Multi-modal models: several transport modes are considered (e.g. private cars, public transport, cycling etc.); demand growth forecast by mode is exogenous and the modelled interactions are limited to competition for using a common network (e.g. private cars and buses travelling on the same roads);
  • Four-step models: overall transport demand growth is estimated endogenously and choice among alternative modes is also endogenously modelled. Modifications in the locations of demand generators (e.g. households) and demand attractors (e.g. jobs) are exogenously modelled;
  • Transport and land use integrated models: in addition to the capability of four-steps models, the feedback between the transportation system and location choices is taken into account, such as the modifications in the locations of demand generators and demand attractors are exogenously modelled;
  • Microsimulation models: instant simulation of every single vehicle taking into account behavioural elements, infrastructure’s geometric layout and level of congestion.

 

Table: The choice of the most appropriate transport model requires evaluating several aspects, such as: the problem to be addressed, the scale of the policy-making environmentinfo-icon, the degree of accuracy and level of detail (spatial, analytical) of expected results, the availability of data and the resources available for its development.

Aim/scope

Available modelling tool

Land-use and spatial planning (e.g. strategic plans, SUMPs)

  • Transport and land-use integrated models
  • Four step models

Urban transport planning (e.g. SUMPs, traffic plans)

  • Transport and land-use integrated models
  • Four step models
  • Multi-modal models

Public transport service planning (e.g. planning routes, frequencies, fares)

  • Uni-modal models

Feasibility studies (e.g. traffic forecasts for a new highway infrastructure)

  • Uni-modal models

Design (e.g. design of a roundabout)

  • Microsimulation models

 

Multi-modal, transport and land-use integrated models on the one hand and microsimulation models on the other represent the two extremes of the range of the most commonly used modelling tools for urban transport planning.

Transport and land-use integrated models are the more comprehensive and powerful tools for strategic urban planning especially if longer term development is of interest. They allow the assessment of the interaction between a transport system and a socio-economic and territorial system within the strategic planning of policies and transport investments. Usually they can adapt to very different applications in terms of demand segments, economic sectors, transport modes and zoning system.

On the other hand, microsimulation models can reproduce the vehicular mobility at microscopic scale and its interaction with a detailed description of the geometric characteristics of the road network including roadway width, number of lanes, traffic signal timing, diameter of roundabouts, etc. The simulation of traffic demand, performed dynamically for a given period, allows the model to estimate the tailback and to calculate waiting times at crossroads, turning points, etc. This kind of modelling tool is therefore of particular interest for the evaluationinfo-icon of detailed design solutions for planning in limited portions of the urban network (> Activity 10.1).

In between uni-modal and multi-modal models are used to address issues related to road traffic assuming a given volume of demand. Measures like opening of new roads or traffic limitations are typically in the domain of uni-modal models.

Four-step models enlarge the scope of the analysis to mode shift and allow to study a wider range of policies including urban road pricing, public transport tariffs, park and ride schemes, additional transport alternatives (e.g. a new tramway line).

Source: TRT TRASPORTI E TERRITORIO, Simone Bosetti, Patrizia Malgieri, Cosimo Chiffi

 


Examples

West Yorkshire, England: Scenarios in the Local Transport Plan

For the Local Transport Plan (LTP) 2006-2011, the West Yorkshire Strategic Transport Model (STM) was used to forecast the outcomes arising from a number of potential core scenarios. The STM took into account forecast future changes in population, car ownership, employment, fuel prices and growth in households. These factors were applied globally or by zone where appropriate.

Each scenario represented a different combination of capital schemes and policy approaches potentially deliverable through the second LTP. The available outputs from the STM were used as ‘proxies’ to enable an assessment of performance against the preferred choices identified in consultationinfo-icon. The outcomes of the alternative core strategy scenarios were carefully considered in relation to the objectives and in conjunction with other criteria. The implications of the assessments and analysis in Leeds indicated that, in order to manage traffic growth and congestion and to provide the connectivity necessary for economic competitiveness, the transport strategy had to seek to make the best use of existing infrastructure and develop the use of alternatives to the car. The core strategy involved high public transport investment together with demand managementinfo-icon measures.

Source: PILOT manual 2007 – full version:
www.pilot-transport.org/index.php?id=48

West Yorkshire Local Transport Plan: www.wyltp.com/currentplan

 

Zaragoza, Spain: Scenarios for the city’s urban mobility in the sustainable mobility plan

Zaragoza developed an integrated mobility plan called ‘Plan de Movilidad Sostenible’, aimed at increasing the public transport share as well as that of non-polluting individual mobility. One of the scenarios was based on a future focussing especially on suburban trains and tramways. Other scenarios referred to pedestrian areas, intermodal stations, parking management, integrated ticketing, cycling and quality of services. In the integrated ticketing scenario, impacts were evaluated from the point of view of users, operators and administrations. The scenarios were intended to help determine which actions should eventually be carried out within the plan.

 

Parma, Italy: Scenario development

In 2005, the Municipality of Parma started an integrated urban transport and land-use planning process, made up of an Urban Mobility Plan (PUM) (similar to a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan), an Urban Traffic Plan (PGTU) and a land use plan (PSC). Drafting the two transport plans (the PUM and the PGTU) together encouraged the authorityinfo-icon to explore the connections between the short term actions promoted by the PGTU and the demand management policies and the infrastructure projects that are part of the PUM.

More info: 

West Yorkshire, England: Scenarios in the Local Transport Plan (LTP2, 2006 – 2011)

For this LTP, the West Yorkshire Strategic Transport Model (STM) was used to forecast the outcomes arising from a number of potential core scenarios. The STM took into account forecast future changes in population, car ownershipinfo-icon, employment, fuel prices and growth in households. These factors were applied globally or by zone where appropriate.

Each scenarioinfo-icon represented a different combination of capital schemes and policyinfo-icon approaches potentially deliverable through the second LTP. The available outputs from the STM were used as ‘proxies’ to enable an assessmentinfo-icon of performance against the preferred choices identified in consultationinfo-icon. The outcomes of the alternative core strategyinfo-icon scenarios were carefully considered in relation to the objectives and in conjunction with other criteria. The implications of the assessments and analysis in Leeds indicated that, in order to manage traffic growth and congestion and to provide the connectivity necessary for economic competitiveness, the transport strategy had to seek to make the best use of existing infrastructure and develop the use of alternatives to the car. The core strategy involved high public transport investment together with demand managementinfo-icon measures.

West Yorkshire Local Transport Plan: www.wyltp.com/currentplan

Source: PILOT manual 2007 – full version: www.pilot-transport.org/index.php?id=48

Zaragoza, Spain: scenarios for the city’s urban mobility in the sustainable mobility plan

Zaragoza needed an integrated plan to cover all the mobilityinfo-icon needs of the city and its surroundings. This plan, called “Plan de Movilidad Sostenible,“ respects the environmentinfo-icon, the urban landscape and the cultural heritage, and is an answer to the city’s future evolution. For Zaragoza, the sustainable mobility plan combines the different transport modes. The plan aims at increasing the public transport share as well as that of non-polluting individual mobility in order to reach a sustainable scenarioinfo-icon. One of the scenarios was based on a future with public transport, especially suburban trains and tramways. Other scenarios referred to pedestrian areas, intermodal stations, parking management, integrated ticketing, cycling and quality of services. In the integrated ticketing scenario, a proposal was made to zone the area and to develop an economic model which would allow evaluationinfo-icon of the impacts of the proposed measureinfo-icon from the point of view of users, operators and administrations. With reference to the pedestrian areas, it is significant to note that 38% of all trips within Zaragoza are carried out on foot. With a horizon for 2016, three proposals within the sustainable scenario were selected: selection of an area with traffic calming (30km/h zones), a programme on walking itineraries, and restrictions on motorised vehicle access to the city centre. The scenarios were intended to help determine the action to be carried out within the plan. In addition to these actions, the scenarios contained more dedicated bus lanes, a newly-constructed tramway line and a coherent bicycle network.

Link to the video of presentation of the plan “Dejate Llevar -Movilidad Urbana” (Let’s get carried – Urban Mobility) (5 minutes, in Spanish):

www.zaragoza.es/ciudad/movilidad/detalle_Video?id=PcVjWY2Qibg

Source: Kerstin Burckhart, IET, Barcelona based on www.zaragoza.es/ciudad/movilidad/

Parma, Italy: Scenario development

Parma is a medium-sized city (about 200,000 inhabitants) located in Northern Italy. In 2005, the Municipality of Parma started an integrated urban transport and land-use planning process, made up of an Urban Mobilityinfo-icon Plan (PUM) (similar to a Sustainable Urban Mobility Planinfo-icon), an Urban Traffic Plan (PGTU) and a land use plan (PSC).

Drafting the two transport plans (the PUM and the PGTU) together encouraged connections between the short term actions promoted by the PGTU and the demand managementinfo-icon policies and the infrastructural projects that are part of the strategic scenarioinfo-icon outlined by the PUM. Moreover the drafting of the two plans in context allows for a consistent and articulate strategyinfo-icon of mobility management that is able to coordinate the demand on different transport modes and the different services provided both to private and public mobility (with particular attention to walking, cycling and disabled people).

The drafting of the PUM was addressed in three phases.

Phase 1 was aimed at understanding the urban area and its transport system and was carried out consulting the wide datainfo-icon base provided by the municipality. The outcomes of phase 1 were:

  • highlighting the most important critical points of the transport system (congestion, environmental impacts and road casualties);
  • defining a transport and land use reference scenario (consisting of the interventions which come at a late stage in the decision-making process).

Phase 2 was focused on setting up and calibrating a transport model (ME PLAN) and on the definition of plan scenarios. Two alternative plan scenarios were defined: the land-use scenario included the interventions promoted by the current land-use plan along with the interventions of the reference scenario. The sustainabilityinfo-icon scenario promoted policies and measures aimed at reducing the negative environmental and social impacts of the transport sector, again combined with the interventions of the reference scenario.

For all the interventions included in the two scenarios, timing (short, medium and long term) was specified that allowed for the coordination of the PGTU actions (short term) and the PUM policies/measures (medium and long term).

Phase 3 was aimed at achieving the municipality’s selection of the plan scenario. The MEPLAN model was used for simulating the transport, environmental and economic impacts of the selected scenario.

The plans are based on the following measures: car use regulation in the city centre, extension of control and safety actions in the sensitive areas of the city, traffic calming, promotion of cycling and pedestrian modes, integrationinfo-icon of public transport modes and bus priority.

 

Source: TRT TRASPORTI E TERRITORIO, Simone Bosetti, Patrizia Malgieri, Cosimo Chiffi