In 2010, some 1,186,000 new bicycles were sold in the Netherlands, 166,040 of which were electrically assisted. In 2011, the number of e-bikes sold rose to 178,000. This increase has been going on for several years now.
KpVV composed a map of all Dutch intercity railway stations and analysed the number of residents in several circles around the station (2.5km, 5km, 7.5km, 10km and 15km). Based on available modal split data, the potential growth in the number of cycling trips was calculated for each city. Results show that metropolitan areas show a large potential increase of more than 20%. But even rurally located cities show potential growths of about 5%.
Previous research had shown that increasing e-bike use would make cycling trips increase by 10% for distances between 2.5 and 5 kilometres, by 43% for distances from 5 to 7.5 kilometres, by 23% between 7.5 and 10 kilometres and by 38% between 10 and 15 kilometres. KpVV added this theoretical increase to the current modal split and then applied the new modal split to the number of residents within the influence range of each city.
The analysis does not take into account barriers like hills, railway lines and canals, nor congestion or quality of public transport or cycle paths. Also, several cities have overlapping influence ranges, which lead to some double counts.
Source: KpVV Dashboard (in Dutch)